North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase

Xiuyuan Ding, Gang Chen and Gudrun Magnusdottir

Abstract
Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been linked to surface cold extremes over North America, but little is known whether the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) plays a role in this linkage. Here, by comparing strong stratospheric wave events during the westerly phase (wQBO) with those during the easterly phase (eQBO), we show that the cooling signature following strong wave events depends on the QBO phase in observations. During wQBO, strong wave events are followed by an increased risk of North American cold extremes and a vertical structure shift from a westward phase tilt to an eastward tilt. However, strong wave events under eQBO do not change the cold risk nor alter the vertical tilt. We further examine this dependence on QBO in QBO-resolving climate models, finding that the cooling signature of strong wave events in models is largely insensitive to QBO phases. This insensitivity is suggested to be linked to model biases in the stratospheric wave representation.

Gang Chen

Gang Chen

Professor, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles

Math Sci Building 7149, Los Angeles, CA 90095

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North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase

Published in Environmental Research: Climate, 2024

Recommended citation: Xiuyuan Ding, Gang Chen and Gudrun Magnusdottir, 2024: North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase, Environmental Research: Climate, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f6.

Abstract

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been linked to surface cold extremes over North America, but little is known whether the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) plays a role in this linkage. Here, by comparing strong stratospheric wave events during the westerly phase (wQBO) with those during the easterly phase (eQBO), we show that the cooling signature following strong wave events depends on the QBO phase in observations. During wQBO, strong wave events are followed by an increased risk of North American cold extremes and a vertical structure shift from a westward phase tilt to an eastward tilt. However, strong wave events under eQBO do not change the cold risk nor alter the vertical tilt. We further examine this dependence on QBO in QBO-resolving climate models, finding that the cooling signature of strong wave events in models is largely insensitive to QBO phases. This insensitivity is suggested to be linked to model biases in the stratospheric wave representation.

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