Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming

Bowen Ge, Gang Chen, Jian Lu and Wenyu Zhou

Abstract
Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture‐limited regions over land.

Gang Chen

Gang Chen

Professor, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles

Math Sci Building 7149, Los Angeles, CA 90095

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Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming

Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2025

Recommended citation: Bowen Ge, Gang Chen, Jian Lu and Wenyu Zhou, 2025: Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17, doi:10.1029/2024MS004612.

Abstract

Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture‐limited regions over land.

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